U.K. politician George Galloway celebrates after winning the Bradford West by-election in northern England, March 30, 2012.
George Galloway, today won the Bradford By-Election with a landslide, gaining more votes than all the other parties put together, which upset the British Labour party who expected to win the election with what they thought was a safe seat. Labour have held the seat for over 30 years.
This lengthy post is about the form of the solution to the Syrian conflict. Or at least the solution as the regime sees it. The post is organized as an attack against a recent statement by George Galloway.
George Galloway is a longtime member of the British Parliament (since 1987). He was expelled from the British Labour Party in 2003 because of his vocal opposition to the invasion of Iraq. Last year he opposed the bombing of Libya. Here’s his opinion on Syria today: “The Syrian regime for 40 years has been play-acting and betraying…. I hope the Syrian people can find their way to a peaceful and negotiated solution to this conflict. Assad must go…. We cannot have one family, one party, one regime ruling forever…. I hope and believe that the Kofi Annan plan of a negotiated transition to democracy in Syria can work. I believe that we will have democratic elections in Syria this year. But if I’m wrong anybody who launches a united progressive democratic struggle against the Syrian regime will have my support.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R31ka92zKUA
George Galloway has a principled policy difference with the UK government on the principles of UK interference in the affairs of other States. But he does not appear to have an information difference with the UK government on the nature of Syria’s politics and society. From his above statement, he appears to be as badly misinformed about the Syrian regime as the UK foreign minister is. Galloway appears to be unaware that Syria had free and fair Local Council Elections on 12 Dec 2011 (turnout: 41%); and the electorate approved a revised Constitution in a national referendum on 26 Feb 2012 (turnout 57%; voting Yes = 89%); and Syria will have free and fair Parliamentary Elections on 7 May 2012; and will have a free and fair Presidential Election in 2014. Contrary to Galloway, there can never be hope for a “negotiated transition to democracy” in Syria, because Syria already transitioned to democracy under this past year’s comprehensive reform program, under which there was enacted a new Elections Law, a new Political Parties Law, a new Information Media Law, a new law liberally regulating the right to protest in public, and finally a new Constitution.
Galloway appears to be unaware of the big fact that the Assad’s party is expected to win comfortably in any democratic elections in Syria. If you doubt that Assad’s Baath party is powerfully positioned to win the competitive elections, take a look at this litany of 20 reasons for expecting them to win comfortably in the 7 May 2012 parliamentary elections: http://www.moonofalabama.org/2012/03/open-thread-2012-07.html#c6a00d8341c640e53ef0168e90185c0970c
There is no hope of a “negotiated solution to this conflict”, because the regime’s unshakeable position is that the solution is essentially whatever’s popular with the people of Syria as expressed in the results of competitive elections. The following is a handful of quotes from Syrian government spokespeople to demonstrate this. In these quotes, the term “ballot box” refers the 12 Dec 2011 Local Council Elections, the 26 Feb 2012 Constitutional Referendum, the 7 May 2012 Parliamentary Elections, the 2014 Presidential Election, and subsequent elections.
10 Jan 2012: Bashar Assad said that since the Parties and Elections Laws were enacted in August 2011 any politician who has an idea should go with it “to the ballot box, which is the voice of law for everything in this country; this is the core of the issue…. When we differ, we go to the ballot box.” http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2012/01/11/393338.htm
14 Mar 2012: Syria’s foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Maqdisi said Syria seeks a political solution to the crisis. Regarding the form of any proposed political solution, Maqdisi said that a political solution means the ballot box will be the decisive criterion for all. http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2012/03/14/406166.htm
10 Feb 2012: Syria’s deputy foreign minister Faisal Mikdad said that the ballot boxes are to decide who will lead the Syrian State. (He also said that a national dialog conference among government and opposition is valuable as a process for helping get out of the current crisis, but I say it’s fair to add that any such a dialog must be largely inconsequential because what’s decisive is the results at the ballot boxes). http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2012/02/10/399591.htm
14 Feb 2012: Syria’s Ambassador to China Imad Moustapha said the Syrian people will decide what they want for Syria through the ballot box in the forthcoming elections. The government and opposition must listen to the people’s demands. This can only take place through free elections, he said. Only when the Syrian people say their word, then we can move forward, he said. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2012-02/16/c_131414691.htm
In an interview on 19 Nov 2011 Bashar Assad was asked: “A sector of the community is opposed to the regime. Even if it’s a minority, it exists. Do they not have the right to their say?” Bashar’s answer: “They have the right, but through the elections. We are going to have elections…. We will have a new parliament. After that we’re going to have a new government. We’re going to have a new Constitution. That Constitution will set the basis for electing a President. The ballot boxes will decide who should be the President.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=YkMTRU_j5H0#t=47s
Interview on 7 Dec 2011:
Bashar Assad: “The election, the ballot box, this is the only way.”
Barbara Walters: “If you have elections, will they be elections for president?”
Assad: We are going to have first of all the local administration election this month.
Walters: Local administration, but what about the president?
Assad: Yeah, after that, we are going to have the parliamentarian election, which is the most important. Talking about presidential election, it’s going to be in 2014.
Walters: People don’t want to wait that long, till 2014.
Assad: Which people?
Walters: The people who are protesting.
Assad: How much, how many, are they majority or not? — that’s why you need to wait first of all for the parliamentarian elections. These elections will tell you are you going to have majority or minority. Then you can think about presidential election, but not before. Before that you don’t have a clear indication.
….Later In The Interview: Walters: You are still having protests and now your military is involved and there are armed people on the other side. There is turmoil in your country. But you are saying that in general you have the support of your people?
Assad: Yeah but let’s wait for the elections to be clear.
Walters: But that’s, that’s, this is 2011 we are talking, this can’t go on for two years.
Assad: No, no, I am talking now about these next elections. We are going to have the parliamentary elections.
Walters: And?
Assad: I belong to the Baath Party. We will see what the position of our party is. Because this is an indication. It’s important. It’s not only the person [of president]. You [the president] are part of another party, of another identity.
Walters: Yeah but your party is not going to want to give up power?
Assad: Why give up if the party has the right like any other party to compete and win the elections. But through the election we will find out do we still have support as a party.
Walters: And your parliamentary elections, they will be open enough so that people can vote against the party?
Assad: Of course. Anyone.
Walters: And that would be the end of the Baath Party and you in terms of leadership?
Assad: If the people said no to the Baath Party, if they [the Baath] lost, you can say this is the end.
Walters: Is there an opposition that they can go to?
Assad: We have opposition. But it takes time to have strong opposition. You have so many figures now if they unified themselves and go to the election, you can have one strong election. That depends on the tactic that they are going to adopt. I cannot tell you they are going to be strong or not. I don’t know. And I don’t know about how much support among the people they have. How much support they have among the people I cannot tell you. http://abcnews.go.com/International/transcript-abcs-barbara-walters-interview-syrian-president-bashar/story?id=15099152&singlePage=true#.T3-RyVHDVws
Congrats…..Mr Galloway….another plus for the voice of reason…from down under.